From Alan Southern, Method in Future Studies, The Value of Critical Realism

Interesting article, but I can't say it convinced me about the value of Critical Realism in Future studies.

P.D. Aligica

From the Abstract
This article is a contribution to the development of the epistemological foundations of Future Studies, criticising the conventional "covering-law" model, which asserts the symmetry between prediction and explanation, a model that continuews to undermine the authority of Future Studies as a discipline despite the fact that Logical Positivism, the epistemological paradigm that inspired it, is no longer dominant.
He underlines the need for a specific epistemology of prediction, which should explicitly deal with the intrinsic social nature of knowledge and knowledge production... theory and epistemology of prediction should be anchored int o the emerging field of Social Epistemology (from the conclusion)


(www.elsevier.com/locate/futures)

About perspectivist scenario building - Perspektivistisk scenariobygging-planleggingens 'missing link'?
An Article by E. Øverland, discussing the merits of perspectivist scenario building compared to managerial planning, future extrapolations, and other foresight methods. He underlines the two most important objectives with the perspectivist method: systematic future orientation based on broad involvement within an organisation - and border-transgressing perspectives on national-international, internal organisaion, culture and competence as well as macro-and micro perspective.

I am not interested in the future per se ... if there is such a thing. But it is interesting to understand how people write, talk and act to make sense about it.

Wired magazine announced that futurims is dead:

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.12/view.html?pg=1

and has been criticised, of course, by futurists:

http://www.wfs.org/futurism.htm